Reading about Scenario Planning
Why?
Required
So What?
Scenario planning is a way to strategically analyse the future, rather than just the current picture. They are a recognition of one or more possible outcomes, not a prediction.
It is particularly appropriate in a rapidly changing external environment. Extrapolation from the past and other traditional planning methods are not likely to produce a reliable forecast under conditions of uncertainty.
Advantages:-
Less subjectivity (than traditional methods)
Capturing detail
Accurate Prediction
How to do it. (Schoemaker (1995):-
(see p89)
- Define the scope
- Identify key external drivers (maybe map on a 2x2 grid, certainty and importance)
- Construct initial scenarios (Schoemaker 1995 says 2 is suitable, though more can be used) - they should collectively bound the perceived range of possible futures, eg
- best & worst case
- extreme worlds
- Identify and develop scenario themes
- Further research
- Developing and evaluating strategies
- Relevance
- Internal consistency
- Archetypal (ie not variations on a theme, but unique future)
- Non-transient (scenario should describe a long-term state)
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